Based on your 10K and half PRs, you should be able to run a ~3:55 marathon; with the time you've got to train before May I don't see that you can't improve your fitness enough to get below 3:50, at least. Sub-3:45 might be a stretch, but like I said, lots of time to train. But certainly you will BQ for 2016 if you'll be 45, unless you have a very bad day.
If Mainz is a certified course (you'd have to check the German organization analogous to the USATF) then it's acceptable for the BQ.
I'll be at Boston 2015, if that's any incentive :-)
Both Mainz and Frankfurt are certified, but sadly I'm only going to still be 44 in April of 2015 :-( I got a bit confused along the way because of the triathlon tendency to count your age as how old you are at the end of the year instead of the actual day of the race. BUT if I do Frankfurt in October, then I can qualify there for 2016 :-) and I'm going to spend the spring being a runner who occasionally swims rather than a triathlete so you never know. A miracle might occur in May but I'm not counting on it. 3:55 is reasonable and a respectable goal for now :-) I'm trying to convince Temve to run the 1/2 in Mainz so that we can run the first half together then I just keep going...
Boston 2016. Not unreasonable. That's my motto for the year :-)
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If Mainz is a certified course (you'd have to check the German organization analogous to the USATF) then it's acceptable for the BQ.
I'll be at Boston 2015, if that's any incentive :-)
no subject
Boston 2016. Not unreasonable. That's my motto for the year :-)